Geoscience for society in times of profound change

Dr. Michiel van der Meulen, TNO - Geological Survey of the Netherlands

Abstract

In the late 1980s, growing awareness of the effects of fossil fuel combustion on the atmosphere and climate heralded what would later become known as the modern energy transition. Motivated by the existential threats posed by sea level rise, rising temperatures, and the increasing frequency of meteorological and hydrological extremes, geoscientists were challenged to identify alternative, sustainable sources of geoenergy, particularly geothermal energy, as well as the mineral resources required for electrification.

The energy transition gained momentum in the mid-2010s, as reflected in key international frameworks such as the UN 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development (2015) and the Paris Agreement (2015), major policy initiatives including the European Green Deal (2020), and their implementation at member state level. More recently, however, growing geopolitical instability has led to a shift in perspectives on sustainability. Like other major global powers, the European Union has sought to become more self-reliant in several strategic areas, including energy and critical raw materials. Ambitions for green growth are now being complemented by a stronger emphasis on strategic autonomy. While this does not necessarily alter the underlying scientific and technical challenges, it does change expectations and priorities. It is therefore no surprise that demand for geoscientists is on the rise.

Alongside these developments, the digital transition is gathering considerable pace. The convergence of permanent, ubiquitous connectivity, increasingly powerful computing infrastructure, and advanced analytics is transforming the way information is produced, shared, and used, reshaping economic activity, public services, scientific research, and everyday life. Recent advances in machine learning and generative AI have enabled systems to recognise patterns, generate text and images, support decision-making, and perform complex analytical tasks at unprecedented speed and scale: tasks that, until recently, were considered the exclusive domain of humans. As demand for geoscientific analysis continues to grow, the question now becomes how geoscience itself must adapt to these developments.

So, what does the future hold for us geoscientists? I will explore this question with you, drawing on experiences from the Geological Survey of the Netherlands.